Disney estimates the domestic weekend will come to $134 million, worldwide $435 million. This is phenomenal by any standards other than the franchises mentioned above. However, with an estimated cost of at least $400 million “The Way of Water” is a film that does not conform to standards. The total for all films this weekend is an estimated $152 million. Last year, with “Spider-Man: No Way Home” opening to $260 million, that figure was $283 million. In 2019, when tickets cost 20 percent less, it was $248 million.

At 61 percent of 2019, our unadjusted four-week rolling average falls to 51 percent. That’s a horrible rate as we move into the all-important Christmas weeks. Related James Corden Reveals He Almost Starred in ‘The Whale’ with Tom Ford Directing ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ Continues Surge, Most Other New Titles Swoon as Holiday Nears End Related The Best Film Sound of 2022 24 Famously Queer and Homoerotic Horror Movies, from ‘Psycho’ to ‘Hellraiser’
Cameron’s film reinforces the idea that savior films aren’t enough. The gross for 2022 domestic now looks like $7.5 billion, perhaps 15 percent lower than the year’s lowball $8.5 billion projection and far off the $11.2 billion of 2019 (which, at today’s ticket prices, would be over $13 billion). Only three wide studio releases remain — “Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody” (Sony), “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (Universal), and “Babylon” (Paramount), with holdovers providing less additional gross ahead than any previous Christmas. Key factors in assessing “The Way of Water” include more-limited seating for the higher-priced premium formats of choice, a 192-minute running time that might encourage delayed viewing during the holidays, and the performances of “Titanic” and the first “Avatar” that saw Christmas and weekdays provide major grosses. If those points hold true, they point to a potential four-times multiple. Most franchise blockbusters don’t see even a threes-time multiple. “Titanic” saw a domestic 22 multiple; “Avatar,” 10 times. That won’t happen here since “The Way of Water” was much better positioned to throw off a massive initial gross. The first “Avatar” opened to $113 million adjusted, but things have changed: Theaters now make every effort to boost a film like this while distributors otherwise vacate the date. Consider this very much a work in progress. The actual Sunday number; the weekdays; the second weekend with Christmas Eve on Saturday and a holiday Monday; the all-important December 27-January 2 period — these will tell much more of the story. The last time the calendar exactly matched up was 2016, when “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” opened to an adjusted $200 million, then fell 59 percent in its second weekend. The bet is “The Way of Water” won’t drop as far. It’s possible that it could reach $400 million through January 2, with enough heft to reach $550 million.

Everything else in the top 10 grossed a pathetic $18 million. Two films  — #2 “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Disney, which has four of the top five films, including Searchlight’s “The Menu”) and “Violent Night” (Universal) — accounted for half of that. Only five films grossed over $1 million. A reissue of “The Polar Express” (Warner Bros. Discovery) made it to #10 with an estimated $260,000. Merie Weismiller Wallace / Universal Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection “The Fabelmans” (Universal) had the smallest drop of 36 percent. Steven Spielberg’s underperforming but awards-contending film added PVOD play Tuesday. That extra marketing might have helped, but its numbers — $750,000 in 955 theaters, with a per-theater average of $785 — remain grim. Best-case scenario is a $15 million total. That looks great compared to “Empire of Light” (Searchlight), which jumped to 436 theaters in its second weekend and a gross of $235,000, a PTA of $539. To add insult to injury, a reissue of “Elf” (WBD), currently thriving at $3.99 on VOD, did $278,000 in 270 theaters. It is unprecedented: On a key weekend right before the holidays, not a single platform title opened from any top specialized distributor. “Living” (Sony Pictures Classics), “Women Talking” (United Artists), and “Corsage” (IFC) open Friday, with Sony providing “A Man Called Otto” and SPC “Turn Every Page” on December 30. The sole specialized title of note this weekend was “The Whale” (A24). The company’s estimate shows a 49 percent drop from last weekend (which had a PTA of $55,300, not the $60,000 claimed initially). That guess includes a claim of only a 15 percent drop for Sunday from Saturday. A standard guess of a 30 percent drop would bring the weekend down 54 percent. Keep in mind that platform dates can create enhanced grosses that don’t reflect long-term performance. On this weekend in 2019, “Uncut Gems” dropped 55 percent and ended up with $50 million; “Inherent Vice” had a similar fall and only got to $8 million. The real strength of “The Whale” will be determined in its expansion, which starts Wednesday in around 600 theaters.   The Top 10

  1. Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney) NEW – Cinemascore: A; Metacritic: 69; Est. budget: $350 million+ $134,000,000 in 4,202 theaters; PTA (per theater average): $31,890; Cumulative: $134,000,000
  2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) Week 6; Last weekend #1 $5,400,000 (-52%) in 3,380 (-345) theaters; PTA: $1,598; Cumulative: $418,991,000
  3. Violent Night (Universal) Week 3; Last weekend #2 $5,000,000 (-43%) in 3,525 (-198) theaters; PTA: $1,418; Cumulative: $34,962,000
  4. Strange World (Disney) Week 4; Last weekend #3 $2,200,000 (-42%) in 2,870 (-690) theaters; PTA: $767; Cumulative: $33,778,000
  5. The Menu (Searchlight) Week 5; Last weekend #4

$1,700,000 (-39%) in 1,875 (-835) theaters; PTA: $907; Cumulative: $32,122,000 6. Devotion (Sony) Week 4; Last weekend #5 $825,000 (-59%) in 2,211 (-1,247) theaters; PTA: $373; Cumulative: $18,661,000 7. The Fabelmans (Universal) Week 5; Last weekend #7; also on PVOD $750,000 (-36%) in 955 (-18) theaters; PTA: $785; Cumulative: $8,666,000 8. Black Adam (WBD) Week 8; Last weekend #6; also on PVOD $500,000 (-62%) in 1,304 (-839) theaters; PTA: $383; Cumulative: $167,722,000 9. I Heard the Bells (Fathom) Week 3; Last weekend #9 $308,893 (-59%) in 450 (-521) theaters; PTA: $725; Cumulative: $4,993,000 10. Polar Express (WBD) REISSUE $(est.) 260,000 in 620 theaters; PTA: $419; Cumulative: (adjusted) $338,000,000   Specialized titles A24 Films (limited, expansions of limited, as well as awards-oriented releases) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after first two weeks, grosses over $5,000 The Whale (A24) Week 2 $169,827 in 6 (no change) theaters; PTA: $28,305; Cumulative: $596,136 Empire of Light (Searchlight) Week 2 $235,000 in 436 (+326) theaters; PTA: $436; Cumulative: $471,821 The Mean One (RLJ) Week 2 $108,000 in 146 (-16) theaters; PTA: $740; Cumulative: $442,350 Spoiler Alert (Focus) Week 3 $208,000 in 771 (-12) theaters; Cumulative: $1,246,000 All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Neon) Week 4 $34,295 in 48 (+13) theaters;  Cumulative: $217,921 EO (Sideshow/Janus) Week 5 $59,500 in 33 (+19) theaters; Cumulative: $238,650 Holy Spider (Utopia) Week 8 $7,031 in 14 (-4) theaters; Cumulative: $200,586 The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight) Week 10; also on HBO Max and PVOD $104,000 in 165 (-105) theaters; Cumulative: $8,795,000 TÁR (Focus) Week 11; also on PVOD $42,000 in 63 (-17) theaters; Cumulative: $5,455,000 Sign Up: Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here.